Sociologist on AfD success: “The success of the Left shows how it can be done”

taz: The AfD has become the strongest force in all of the eastern German states. How do you explain that?

Axel Salheiser: I expected that. But what shocks me is that it has increased significantly compared to the last state elections. On the one hand, it is benefiting from the climate throughout Germany. On the other hand, post-election surveys show that other issues were decisive in the election in East Germany than in West Germany. Issues such as the environment and climate played almost no role in the East. The main issue here was immigration - as a scapegoat debate. The narrative that migrants are systematically favored is catching on here because many East Germans see themselves as second-class citizens.

taz: Why? Things aren't that bad for people in the East.

Salheiser: That's true, but Democratic politicians are afraid to address it because nobody wants to insult their voters. And it's also difficult to tell people: "You may not be doing as well as you hoped. But you could be doing much worse."

What is true is that the political successes of the last 35 years are not addressed enough. Instead, East Germans paint a bleak picture of their future: structural change, young people are moving away, the regions are becoming emptier. We know that where the orientation towards the future is particularly negative, dissatisfaction with democracy is particularly great.

taz: But other regions in Germany are also facing unresolved questions about the future. Why is the East even more receptive to right-wing narratives?

Salheiser: We have been studying the attitudes of Thuringians for many years. The most important factor that explains why people vote for the AfD is nationalist and xenophobic attitudes. This means that people who are racist are most likely to vote for the AfD. That sounds banal, but it remains relevant. Not all people who are dissatisfied with democracy vote for the AfD. But everyone who votes for the AfD is dissatisfied with democracy. The AfD absorbs political dissatisfaction like a sponge.

taz: The AfD won almost 40 percent in Thuringia and Saxony. What does that mean?

Salheiser: This results in a major representation deficit. If almost every second Thuringian voted for the AfD, one rightly asks why this political force is kept out of power. The democratic parties cannot adequately explain this. On the contrary: The CDU stands for a migration policy that is very close to what the AfD wants. How can it then convincingly explain why it does not work with the AfD?

taz: The democratic parties have tried a lot: They point to the extreme right-wing tendencies, they try to confront them with content. None of this seems to help. How can it be done better?

Salheiser: The success of the Left Party shows on a small scale how it can be done: no more tackling the AfD, instead sharpening one's own profile. It is a mistake to link the social question to people's origins. Talking about immigration in our social systems is wrong. This leads to migration being framed as illegal in its entirety. The democratic parties must manage to dispel this narrative. It only benefits the AfD.

taz: The strength of the AfD is not a purely German phenomenon, and certainly not a purely East German one. Right-wing populists are triumphing globally. So is Germany now catching up with the general zeitgeist?

Salheiser: Yes, but the comparison with the right-wing populists in Italy, the Netherlands and France is flawed. I don't want to trivialize the right-wing parties there. But the AfD is much more aggressive. It is not just staunchly right-wing. It is right-wing extremist and wants system change.

taz: Is it foreseeable that the AfD will stop growing?

Salheiser: No, that is not the case at all, especially in the East. We have seen a linear development over the last elections. If we extend this line, the AfD will win an absolute majority in the next East German state elections. That is a catastrophic development. We can already see the damage that is being done to democratic culture at the regional level.

With its presence in parliaments, the AfD is expanding its structures and strengthening its extra-parliamentary front organizations. This leads to more violence, more polarization. Those who suffer most are refugees, queer people, left-wing people and non-white people in rural areas.